Global Carbon Credit Demand Forecast Update (2H24 update)

This report updates our projections for carbon credit demand across voluntary, CORSIA, compliance, and sovereign markets. We now estimate carbon credit demand could range from 300 to 1,050 MtCO₂e in 2030 and 2,300 to 8,200 MtCO₂e in 2050.

Credit demand in 2030 decreases by 45%, 45% and 55% in our low, medium and high scenarios respectively compared to our previous 1H24 outlook

In 2050, credit increases by 9% and 2% in the low and medium scenarios relative to our previous outlook but falls by 14% in the high scenario. Most of the fall is in reduction credits not removals

The largest source of demand in 2050, nearly 50% of total in the medium scenario, is expected to come from corporates seeking to fulfil their SBTi net zero commitments.

By sector in 2050 in the medium scenario, around 20% of demand comes from manufacturing and materials businesses. By region. Europe represents 37% of all demand.